Promoters of the supermarket proposal originally said the new supermarket would create 250 jobs. That’s now been revised to 210 jobs, two-thirds of which will be part time. This is of course an estimate. Even more of an estimate is the calculation that around 78 part and full time jobs will be lost in the Ludlow area if the store opens.
In green, new jobs (part and full time). For every replacement job
created in the store (red), a job is lost in town.
The proposed supermarket will create around 210 part and full time jobs (140 FTE). But with the store set to take a quarter of everyday trade from the town centre area, around 78 local jobs (47 FTE) will go as the in-town supermarkets cut back and independent traders struggle or close.
The analysis of new jobs and the loss of existing jobs has been conducted by Indigo Planning for the developer, Blackfriars. The techniques it uses are pretty standard but are not localised. Indigo is using the same method of estimating retail job numbers as would be used in any town in Britain. It makes no adjustment for the unique character of Ludlow’s shopping centre. Which retail chain occupies the Rocks Green store will also make a difference. A discount store such as Lidl or Netto would hit Aldi hard. Waitrose might take trade from butchers, bakers and the local food markets. If the developers have a retailer in mind, they are not letting on.
Indigo Planning says the new store and petrol station will create 210 jobs. It estimates that 140 of the jobs will be part time and 70 full time, giving 140 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs.
Not all jobs will be new. Based on Indigo’s estimates, around 153 jobs will be additional jobs (93 FTE). That means that 78 jobs (47 FTE) will be lost from other businesses in Ludlow if the store gains planning permission.
The estimate of new jobs incorporates a 30% multiplier to take account of jobs created for cleaners, maintenance, training and supply of goods from the local area. I am not convinced by this multiplier. Cleaners will be local, but maintenance and training are usually corporate functions with staff coming from outside the area. Many retail chains do not source goods locally. And Indigo doesn’t seem to have taken account of the loss of supply chain jobs if, for example, a butcher or greengrocer closes in central Ludlow. This might mean that the loss of local jobs will be higher than Indigo is estimating.
. Planning and Retail Statement , 9.40-9.60.