With two weeks to go until polling day, it’s a tossup between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in South Shropshire. A new MRP poll for Sky News shows the Conservatives on 31% and the Lib Dems on 30%. Labour is trailing well behind at 17%, polling worse than Reform which is on 19%. The Green Party is in danger of losing its deposit with just 4% of the vote.

These results reflect what the Lib Dem team is hearing on doorsteps. Disillusionment with the Tories is high, especially with a gaffe prone prime minister who is out of touch with the problems people are facing every day.

The YouGov results published yesterday and reported by Sky News and are based on a survey of nearly 40,000 voters, the largest sample to date. Results for individual constituencies are based on an analytical technique known as MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification). It uses a range of data to generate the predictions, including national trends, demographic characteristics of constituencies and previous results but not the popularity of candidates. Philip Dunne’s long tenure as Conservative MP in the former Ludlow constituency means that YouGov is still calling South Shropshire for the Conservatives. However, a clear Lib Dem win is within the margin of error and YouGov says the result is a tossup.

Simon Thomson is the Labour candidate for South Shropshire. He lives in south London. That might be why his election leaflet delivered to households this week has a Google image of Whitchurch Household Recycling Centre not a photo of him at Craven Arms. The photo of ambulances queuing is not at Royal Shrewsbury Hospital as you might expect. It’s a stock image from agency EPA. The photo of potholes is even more misplaced. According to the photographer, it was taken in Middle Fork. Don’t recognise the placename? It’s in Washington USA! Doesn’t Labour have photos of countless potholes in South Shropshire! Labour do not acknowledge the source of their photos and have not asked for permission to use the Middle Fork pothole photo which is copyright.  

Are any of these images of South Shropshire?

Elsewhere in Shropshire, Helen Morgan is predicted to win North Shropshire comfortably with a 28% margin over the Tories. In Shrewsbury, Julia Buckley looks like taking the seat from Daniel Kawczynski, with 47% of the votes compared to 24% for the unpopular Kawczynski. Labour is predicted to take Telford from the Conservatives while Wrekin is a tossup between Labour and the Conservatives.

A Lib Dem win in South Shropshire is now within grasp. Of course, a week is a long time in politics and two weeks even longer. But it is looking hopeful here. Across Britain, the Lib Dems are predicted to win 67 seats, 56 more than now. Let’s make that 68 seats with a win for Matthew Green.

6 thought on “Lib Dems and Tories neck and neck in two-horse race for South Shropshire”
  1. Much happier now – Can we get this info to Tactical voting website johnnies.
    Let’s not forget that this does not include other factors which all favour Matthew – track record, popularity, local knowledge Parliamentary record of the Tory candidate, dubious financial past, controversial religious adherence etc.

    1. So pleased to hear Mathew Green is almost there. I voted tactically to get rid of this corrupt Conservative government. Best of luck Matthew. Kinlet voter.

  2. Describing the PM as gaffe prone makes him sound like a hapless clown. As Chancellor and PM he has presided over a divided nation now facing untold hardships.

  3. Every time I hear people talking about the election they say the voters have been let down by the politicians who have not kept their promises and they don’t know who to vote for but surely the problem is that the Tories kept their promises as they believed that is what the voters wanted when it was just Nigel Farage and his admirers asking for things to make themselves popular that the more responsible politicians knew would be a disaster but they felt they had to offer a referendum on Brexit and tax cuts for the better off etc in the hope that they would not have to implement them and now they are facing the consequences of their cowardice.

  4. Whilst we give homage to YouGov just a caveat, other MRPs have us in third p;lace in both seats, factors which make me very sceptical of the true worth of such polling, which tend to work on probability rather than actual constituency reporting.
    Having said that I hope YouGov are right.

    1. I studied the other polls. Savanta is based on only 17,800 people and is nearly two weeks ago. Ipsos is based on a very different methodology which to my knowledge has not been tested against a real election result. And it’s sample was just 20,000. YouGov is bang up to date snd is based on 40,000 people. It reflects what we know from previous elections, Lib Dems do well in some constituencies and trail behind the major parties in most. Here, we are winning and, I hope, will win.

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